C200 Strategic Estimate

SUMMARY:
1. BACKGROUND/DISCUSSION:

a) Introduction:
• The Caucasus region is a crossroad of regional and international interests.
• It is driven by cultural, ethnic, and economic interests.
• Multiple fault lines exist between ethnic and religious groups.
• These issues result in the formation of terrorist groups.
b) Strategic Direction:
• Focus on the secure access and transport of energy resources.
• Encourage the creation of secular democratic nations.
• Prevent the revival of Russian hegemony.
• Support actions that maintain the territorial integrity of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
c) Strategic Environment:
• There are two new states, Ahurastan and Luristan, a result of the fragmentation of Iran.
• Ongoing Russian involvement in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
• The long term ethnic conflicts of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
• The Russian military presence and involvement within the region.
• Multiple terrorist groups and non state actors continue to influence and destabilize this region.
d) Major Strategic and Operational Challenges:  
• Stabilization is vital to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy resources.
• Support of the national sovereignty of our regional allies.
• Challenge the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
• Terrorist groups will disrupt regional stability and threaten United States’ interests.
e) Potential Opportunities:
• Support combined military exercises focusing on combating terrorism and national defense.
• Engage in diplomatic and military to military cooperation with Luristan  
• Foreign aid initiatives on nuclear material stability, security, and counter-proliferation.
f) Assessment of Risk:
• A destabilizing regional war in the Caucasus.
• A disruption of energy supplies through the region.
• Increase in Russia’s influence in the region.
• The proliferation of WMD that could result in catastrophic attacks on United States’ interests.

2. CURRENT STATUS:

• The dissolution of...