Future of Nuclear Energy
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The future of Nuclear Energy
Carlo Rubbia CERN
1
The demographic transition
1700;; 6008million 1800; 200 million 1350; 150 billion 1950;930 billion AD 2.4 1900; 1.6 2020; 1985; 5
An “explosive” population growth: 90 M/year ● World’s population is rising rapidly . ● It is generally expected that it may grow to some 10÷ 12 Billion people by 2100 and stay relatively stable after that. ● Most of the population will be in what are presently the so-called Developing Countries.
● Everybody will agree on the fact that no future progress of mankind will be possible without substantial amount of of energy, namely
Sweden, June 2005
“Energy is necessary” .
Slide# : 2
Energy growth: it may not be for ever
● The individual energy consumption of the most advanced part of
And what And what after that ?? after that
mankind has grown about 100 fold
from the beginning of history. ● The level is today about
➩ 0.9 GJ/day /person, ➩32 kg of Coal/day/ person, ➩continuous 10.4 kWatt/person.
● The corresponding daily emission rate of CO2 is about 100 kg
Energy consumption/person increments by +2 %/y (fossil dominated)
Slide# : 3
Sweden, June 2005
Energy and poverty
● A huge correlation between energy and poverty
1’600 Millions without electricity 1’600 Millions without electricity
➩Sweden: 15’000 kWh of ➩Tanzania:
electricity/ person/year 100 kWhe /p/y
● 1.6 billion people - a quarter of the current world's population - are without electricity, ● About 2.4 billion people rely almost exclusively on traditional biomass as their principal energy source.
2’400 Millions with only biomass 2’400 Millions with only biomass
● Of the 6 billion people, about one half live in poverty and at least one Technologically advanced countries have the fifth are severely under nourished. responsibility of showing the way The rest live in comparative comfort to the most needy ones ! and health.
Sweden, June 2005 Slide# : 4
New energies: how soon...
Carlo Rubbia CERN
1
The demographic transition
1700;; 6008million 1800; 200 million 1350; 150 billion 1950;930 billion AD 2.4 1900; 1.6 2020; 1985; 5
An “explosive” population growth: 90 M/year ● World’s population is rising rapidly . ● It is generally expected that it may grow to some 10÷ 12 Billion people by 2100 and stay relatively stable after that. ● Most of the population will be in what are presently the so-called Developing Countries.
● Everybody will agree on the fact that no future progress of mankind will be possible without substantial amount of of energy, namely
Sweden, June 2005
“Energy is necessary” .
Slide# : 2
Energy growth: it may not be for ever
● The individual energy consumption of the most advanced part of
And what And what after that ?? after that
mankind has grown about 100 fold
from the beginning of history. ● The level is today about
➩ 0.9 GJ/day /person, ➩32 kg of Coal/day/ person, ➩continuous 10.4 kWatt/person.
● The corresponding daily emission rate of CO2 is about 100 kg
Energy consumption/person increments by +2 %/y (fossil dominated)
Slide# : 3
Sweden, June 2005
Energy and poverty
● A huge correlation between energy and poverty
1’600 Millions without electricity 1’600 Millions without electricity
➩Sweden: 15’000 kWh of ➩Tanzania:
electricity/ person/year 100 kWhe /p/y
● 1.6 billion people - a quarter of the current world's population - are without electricity, ● About 2.4 billion people rely almost exclusively on traditional biomass as their principal energy source.
2’400 Millions with only biomass 2’400 Millions with only biomass
● Of the 6 billion people, about one half live in poverty and at least one Technologically advanced countries have the fifth are severely under nourished. responsibility of showing the way The rest live in comparative comfort to the most needy ones ! and health.
Sweden, June 2005 Slide# : 4
New energies: how soon...