Political Effects of Low Turnout in National and European Elections
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Electoral Studies 26 (2007) 561e573
www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud
Political effects of low turnout in national and
European elections
Cees van der Eijk a,Ã, Marcel van Egmond b
a
Social Sciences Methods and Data Institute, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK
b
Social Research Centre, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
Abstract
This article estimates for member states of the EU the effect of low levels of turnout on parties’ share of the vote in national
elections. It does so by comparing the distribution of party choices in national elections for all those who participate in those elections on the one hand, and for the much more restricted group of those who participate in European Parliament elections on the
other. As European elections register lower turnout than other nation-wide elections, this comparison provides an extreme, but empirically observed case of low turnout. Turnout effects prove comparatively small, and are non-negligible in only few cases. Turnout
effects are slightly different for different kinds of parties: right-wing parties benefit slightly from them (on average) and left-wing
parties are (on average) somewhat hurt. Although significant, these differences are exceedingly small, and explain no more than
a few percent of variation in turnout effects. No significant effects are found from other party characteristics (such as their size,
government status, position on European integration, or interactions of these with government approval or time since the last national election). The analyses are based on data from European election studies in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2004.
Ó 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Turnout; European Parliament elections; National elections
1. Introduction
The lower the level of turnout in an election, the more
often do we see politicians and commentators proclaim
that the fortunes of parties in that election were affected
by turnout. Some...
www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud
Political effects of low turnout in national and
European elections
Cees van der Eijk a,Ã, Marcel van Egmond b
a
Social Sciences Methods and Data Institute, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK
b
Social Research Centre, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
Abstract
This article estimates for member states of the EU the effect of low levels of turnout on parties’ share of the vote in national
elections. It does so by comparing the distribution of party choices in national elections for all those who participate in those elections on the one hand, and for the much more restricted group of those who participate in European Parliament elections on the
other. As European elections register lower turnout than other nation-wide elections, this comparison provides an extreme, but empirically observed case of low turnout. Turnout effects prove comparatively small, and are non-negligible in only few cases. Turnout
effects are slightly different for different kinds of parties: right-wing parties benefit slightly from them (on average) and left-wing
parties are (on average) somewhat hurt. Although significant, these differences are exceedingly small, and explain no more than
a few percent of variation in turnout effects. No significant effects are found from other party characteristics (such as their size,
government status, position on European integration, or interactions of these with government approval or time since the last national election). The analyses are based on data from European election studies in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2004.
Ó 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Turnout; European Parliament elections; National elections
1. Introduction
The lower the level of turnout in an election, the more
often do we see politicians and commentators proclaim
that the fortunes of parties in that election were affected
by turnout. Some...