Unemployment

An Explanation of Statistical Tools from DocumentingExcellence.com
A consulting practice focusing on working with colleges', organizations', and individuals' utilization of quantitative and qualitative assessment tools to analyze and document their quality outcomes through providing staff development, research design and analysis, and psychometric evaluations.

    * Statistical Tools TOC
    * Conceptual Issues
          o Measurment Issues
                + Conceptual focus
                + Measurement Focus
                + Effectivenes
          o Evaluating - Single variable
                + Descriptive statistics
                + Validity, Reliabiltiy, Cause & Effect
          o Sound Reasoning
          o Cause and Effect
          o Reporting
    * Modeling
          o Correlation
          o Regression & Correlation
          o Statistical Control
                + Unemployment & Crime
          o Model Reduction
    * Outcomes Assessment
    * FAQ
    * Consulting Services

Determining Cause and Effect

Statistical Control
Examining Unemployment and Crime

The following example illustrates some of the uses of correlation and regression as well as the importance of control for exogenous variables.   The example uses real data, but it is intended as an example, not a theoretically based explanation.   So let's start with a reasonable hypothesis.
bullet State a research hypothesis:   As unemployment rates rise the rate of crime will increase.

Now the researcher collects data.   In this case we can use data collected by governmental agencies.
  Illinois rates of crime by year
Year Violent Crime rate Property crime rate Unemployment rate Year Violent Crime rate Property crime rate Unemployment rate
1975 670 5,033 8.5 1991 1039 5,093 6.8
1976 626 4,830 7.7 1992 977 4,788 7.5
1977 631 4,697 7.1 1993 960 4,658 6.9
1978 677 4,943 6.1 1994 961 4,665 6.1
1979 744 5,287 5.8 1995 996...